TL;DR
  • GPT-5.4 moved to the top of GDPval-AA at 1674 Elo, 41 points above Claude Sonnet 4.6 (1633), as of late March 2026. The margin is within drift range; nobody published a crowning.
  • Grok 4.20 went GA mid-month at roughly 1179 Elo, mid-table on work tasks but leading IFBench for instruction following.
  • Three labs sit within 70 Elo at the top. The work-benchmark race has no runaway winner, so the buying decision shifts to price, context, and behavior inside your workflows.

Update, June 2026: April brought GPT-5.5 and Opus 4.7, the April edition covers it; by June Fable 5 reset the ceiling.

February belonged to Anthropic. March belonged to nobody, and that is the story.

On March 5, OpenAI shipped GPT-5.4. Within days it landed at 1674 Elo on GDPval-AA, Artificial Analysis's Elo ranking for real-world work deliverables, 41 points above Claude Sonnet 4.6's 1633. That put GPT-5.4 at the top of the table.

Note the phrasing. Top of the table, not crowned champion. Artificial Analysis never published a "GPT-5.4 takes #1" piece, and for good reason: Elo ratings on GDPval-AA drift as pairwise comparisons accumulate, and 41 points sits within that drift range. The two ratings overlap once you account for confidence intervals. If a vendor deck shows you this leaderboard without error bars, ask why.

The Late-March Leaderboard

Here is the GDPval-AA board as of late March 2026. Ratings drift as new comparisons land, so treat these as a snapshot, not scripture.

#ModelGDPval-AA Elo
1GPT-5.41674
2Claude Sonnet 4.61633
3Claude Opus 4.61606
4GPT-5.2~1467
5Gemini 3.1 Pro1314
6GLM-4.7 (open weights)1224
7Grok 4.201179
Fig. 1
GDPval-AA Elo, late March 2026
GPT-5.4 1674 Claude Sonnet 4.6 1633 Claude Opus 4.6 1606 GPT-5.2 ~1467 Gemini 3.1 Pro 1314 GLM-4.7 (open) 1224 Grok 4.20 1179 Scale starts at 1000; top three within 70 points.
Three labs, seventy points. The leaderboard stopped picking your model for you.
Source: Artificial Analysis GDPval-AA leaderboard, late March 2026. Elo ratings drift as comparisons accumulate.

Grok 4.20: Mid-Table, Different Bet

The other March release was xAI's Grok 4.20, GA on March 10. On GDPval-AA it landed around 1179 Elo, bottom of this board. That undersells what xAI shipped, though: Grok 4.20 leads IFBench, the instruction-following benchmark, which measures something GDPval does not. A model that follows instructions precisely is a different tool than a model that produces expert-grade deliverables, and some workflows want the former.

On the work-eval story specifically, xAI's real move was still ahead of it. The jump came later, with Grok 4.3 in May. In March, mid-table was the honest read.

What a 70-Point Cluster Means for Buyers

Step back from the individual scores and look at the shape of the board. OpenAI, Anthropic, and Anthropic again, all within 70 Elo of each other at the top. After February's Anthropic sweep, GPT-5.4 pulled OpenAI back level within five weeks. The work-benchmark race has no runaway winner.

That changes what the leaderboard is for. When one model led by hundreds of points, the leaderboard made your decision. When three models cluster within drift range, it cannot. The differentiator shifts to the things the leaderboard does not measure: price per task, context window against your actual document sizes, latency in your actual pipeline, and above all how each model behaves inside your workflows, on your deliverables, with your data.

A top-three cluster this tight is exactly when vendor marketing gets loudest and least meaningful.

Every lab can now produce a chart where its model wins something. All of the charts are technically true. None of them tell you which model writes your proposals, triages your tickets, or builds your financial models best. The only benchmark that answers that is the one you run on your own work.

The race is tied.

Your work, actually benchmarked.

The Diagnostic is free: 30–45 minutes. We'll measure the frontier models against your real deliverables.

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Sources
1TechCrunch, GPT-5.4 launch coverage, March 5, 2026.
2Artificial Analysis, GDPval-AA leaderboard, late March 2026. Elo standings for GPT-5.4, Claude Sonnet 4.6, Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5.2, Gemini 3.1 Pro, GLM-4.7, and Grok 4.20.
3Artificial Analysis, Grok 4.20 model page. GDPval-AA rating and IFBench lead.
John Tan
John Tan

Fractional Chief of AI at nativefirst.ai. Former YC CEO (Depict). Embeds with scaling founders and CEOs to ship Level-3 agents and AI workflows in production.